Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us - Hardcover

by David Lockwood (Author)

Fooled by the Winners will change the way you think about the stock market, health care, global warming, diets, lotteries, restaurants, and your siblings. It will reshape your perspective of the past and give you a clearer view of the future.

Fooled by the Winners is a book about survivor bias, the cognitive error of focusing on the winners, the successes, and the living. But in many instances, we can learn more from those who have lost, failed, or died.

After reading this book, you will understand how survivor bias is often used to deceive us. You will learn how to stop paying for financial services that promise more than they deliver, for health care that doesn't make us healthier, for diets that don't make us slimmer, and for advice books that don't offer good advice. You will also come away with a different view of our past, including our perilous evolutionary journey and how history has often been written by the winners. You will come to understand how we are fooled by the winners in warfare, such as in the deployment of nuclear weapons and the most famous example of survivor bias--the missing Allied bombers of WWII.

Previous studies of survivor bias have been inaccessible to most, housed in formula-laden statistical journals. But you won't find any math or technical jargon here. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, applies the concept of survivor bias to specific, real-world examples--minus the equations.

Through compelling analysis and the real-life stories, this book demonstrates the deceptive influence of survivor bias in our daily lives and on our thinking.

Author Biography

David Lockwood is a former lecturer on the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He has three decades of experience as a senior executive on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley and has served on more than twenty public and private company boards. In addition, he has been an advisor to the highest levels of the US government. He currently resides in the Western Rockies with his wife and three children.